The 2025 World Series could have been viewed as David vs Goliath – The Los Angeles Dodgers versus the Toronto Blue Jays. Two divergent philosophies of record-setting free agent spending versus homegrown cultivation of draft, sign and develop with some stealth pro scouting acquisitions mixed in. The Dodgers epitomized big-market dominance through aggressive spending, shelling out over a billion on elite talents like Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. In contrast, the Blue Jays embodied the draft, develop and sign ethos, relying on a core of home-grown prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Trey Yesavage, alongside Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, Mason Fluharty and recycled home-grown closer Jeff Hoffman.

To the Dodgers’ credit, they spend much of what they generate, but other than a single Jay in Barger, a 6th rounder out of a Florida HS, the 2018 MLB Draft did not affect the outcome of the 2025 World Series to any significant degree. The Dodgers won with a club of mostly mega contract free agents, but did mix in some irony with farm-raised Will Smith (1st round, 2016) and his Series winning home run in the 11th inning of Game Seven.

At the end of the day, it’s about winning the World Series and not “winning” the draft and development game. It could also be argued that with so many layers of player acquisition it’s less important today to have an elite player development system, especially mega-market teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox with the Mets, Phillies and Braves also in that stratosphere.

Overall, the 2018 draft has not produced a long list of stars, but it has produced the AL Cy Young winner in each of the past two seasons -- Tarik Skubal who was a 9th round pick one year removed from Tommy John surgery at Seattle University.

Another steal of the 2018 draft is now in Seattle, albeit with the Mariners. Third-rounder Cal Raleigh was the runner-up for this year’s AL MVP and has accumulated the second-best career WAR of anyone chosen in the 2018 draft.

The Top Ten Players:

The first round is littered with underachieving selections, including the 8th and 9th overall picks in Carter Stewart (ATL) and Kyler Murray (OAK). Stewart opted for a career overseas, while Murray, the NFL. Other first rounders who have yet to reach the Major Leagues include Connor Scott (FLA), Mason Denaburg (WASH) and Nick Schnell (TB). Denaburg’s development has been derailed by injury, while Scott and Schnell have both struggled to perform in the batter’s box.

An Antonio Alfonseca handful of additional first round picks have reached the Major Leagues, but on a limited basis and with a negative WAR return – Travis Swaggerty (PIT, 10th overall, -0.2 WAR), Jordan Groshans (TOR, 12th, -0.1), Jordyn Adams (LAA, 17th, -1.0), Ryan Rolison (COL, 22nd, -0.3), Anthony Seigler (NYY, 23rd, -0.1) and Seth Beer (HOU, 28th, -0.8).

Over the past ten years, the Astros, Rays, Orioles, Brewers, Dodgers and Mariners have developed a reputation for top tier draft and development. The Astros bonanza centered around 2015 with first-rounders Alec Bregman and Kyle Tucker, while the Dodgers have lived a similar life with 2015 Walker Buehler, 2016s Will Smith, Gavin Lux and 2019s Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot. The Rays have benefited from high picks and oodles of bonus money to collect 2015s Brandon Lowe, Jake Cronenworth and 2018s Shane McClanahan, Joe Ryan. The Orioles used the same formula of high picks and truckloads of cash for hitters from 2019-2022 with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday as the headliners. Seattle had a franchise-changing draft in 2018 with Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh, which has further been supplemented by arms that include 2019 George Kirby and 2021s Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller.

And the Brewers have done it all. They’ve excelled at drafting/developing arms that include 2016 Corbin Burnes, 2018 Drew Rasmussen and 2022 Jacob Misiorowski, while also balancing with hitters 2018 Bryce Turang, 2020 Garrett Mitchell and 2021 Sal Frelick.

Breaking down just the 2018 draft, here’s how it shakes out:

The Middle Ten Teams:

The Bottom Ten Teams:

The Dodgers have received a total of just 1.0 WAR from its top three overall picks, but fared better after. Miami’s top four picks either did not reach the Major Leagues or did, but produced negative WAR. As mentioned above, the Braves whiffed on Stewart and Greyson Jenista was a lost gamble in the second round. Swaggerty's (Pirates) career was derailed by injuries, while 2nd round prep Gunnar Hogland did not sign. He would later be chosen by Toronto in the 1st round (19th overall) out of Mississippi and made his MLB debut this season with Oakland. The Rockies’ draft pain continued in 2018, following a script similar to Miami as its top four picks either did not reach the Majors, or produced a negative WAR.

The lowest production was East Coast concentrated as the Yankees, Orioles, Nationals and Blue Jays all finished in the bottom five with the Rangers saving the Northeast from a sweep. The Blue Jays didn’t hit on much in the 2018 draft, but watching Barger during this year’s World Series was a big success story for Toronto’s PD department. Washington whiffed on its top three picks with none reaching the Majors. And despite five draftees reaching the Majors, only one has produced a positive career WAR; Jake Irvin. It’s hard to be worse than their geo neighbors, but the Orioles succeeded. A total of just three draftees from 2018 reached the Majors and just one has a positive career WAR, 1st rounder Grayson Rodriguez.

The Rangers went all-in on preps with their first five picks, and in the end crashed and burned with this ultra high risk approach. Four of those five have reached the Major Leagues and Cole Winn may have found his niche, producing a 1.1 WAR in 33 games out of the pen this past season, but as a middle reliever it’s a role easily replaceable with waiver claims and minor league free agency. And lastly, the Yankees. Although five of their 34 signed players from this draft have reached the Major Leagues, all have failed to produce. First-rounder Anthony Seigler debuted in 2025 with Milwaukee, but hit just .194. Josh Breaux had 70-grade arm strength and 70-grade raw power as a junior college prospect, but was a head scratcher at the time as a second round pick. And third-rounder Ryder Green played four years in the minor leagues (three years at Rookie level) before his release in 2023.

The Top Ten Teams + One:

And here is where the fun begins. It’s always much better to talk about the successes than belabor the beaten. Interestingly, of the top ten, only three teams made their highest producing-pick with their first selection. The Brewers, Royals and Cubs first round pick is their current WAR leader. Give the Cubs major kudos for the selection of Nico Hoerner at 24th overall. He was one of a handful of prospects projected to be chosen in that area, and they no-doubt picked the right one. At the same time, and with four of the top 78 overall picks, the Cubbies picked no one else in the entire 2018 draft who has produced a positive career WAR – Hoerner, all by himself, has 100% of the Cubs’ draft WAR value. The Brewers hit on both Turang and Drew Rasmussen (6th round), an unsigned 1st rounder in 2017, giving them two high-level performers. The Royals draft strategy focused on college prospects, and especially pitchers up top. They chose Brady Singer at No. 18 overall after he had fallen due to what I recall as signability concerns, but was a top ten pick in regards to his talent. Singer’s pick was followed by four consecutive college pitchers, all who have reached the Major Leagues with mixed results.

And to further illustrate just how crazy the draft can be, three other clubs found their top WAR leader in the 7th round and two others in the 3rd round with Seattle and Raleigh currently topping the charts for the 2018 draft.

Prep Baseball drafted in real time for their first annual Simul-Draft. Results are here.

EFFICIENCY RANKINGS:

And finally, draft efficiency and the Return on Investment. It’s not my money and the nature of the beast is failure, but getting a strong return on one’s investment does have importance. Keep in mind that not all drafts are created equal – money matters and where a club picks in each round does as well. Below we rank clubs on the WAR produced per dollar spent on their 2018 draft.

For a look back at the highlights of the 2018 MLB Draft, please see 2018 Year in Review: Top MLB Draft Stories