Prep Baseball Report

2019 MLB Draft Review


David Seifert
Director of College Scouting

 

Over the past ten years, the Astros, Rays, Orioles, Brewers, Dodgers and Mariners have developed a reputation for top tier draft and development. The Astros bonanza centered around 2015 with first-rounders Alec Bregman and Kyle Tucker, while the Dodgers have lived a similar life with 2015 Walker Buehler, 2016s Will Smith, Gavin Lux and 2019s Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot. The Rays have benefited from high picks and oodles of bonus money to collect 2015s Brandon Lowe, Jake Cronenworth and 2018s Shane McClanahan, Joe Ryan.

The Orioles used the same formula of high picks and truckloads of cash for hitters from 2019-2022 with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar HendersonJordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday as the headliners. Seattle had a franchise-changing draft in 2018 with Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh, which has further been supplemented by arms that include 2019 George Kirby and 2021s Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller.

And the Brewers have done both. They’ve excelled at drafting/developing arms that include 2016 Corbin Burnes, 2018 Drew Rasmussen and 2022 Jacob Misiorowski, while also balancing with hitters 2018 Bryce Turang, 2020 Garrett Mitchell and 2021 Sal Frelick.

Breaking down the 2019 draft:

The Orioles picked first, while the D’Backs ruled the bonus pool allotment with a total just over $16M to spend and also seven of the top 75 overall picks. The Red Sox didn't make their first choice until No. 44 and had the smallest pool at $4.79M. 2019 also marked the final year of the 40 round draft as covid would force change into five total rounds in 2020 and future drafts cut to 20. 

Entering the 2019 draft, Adley Rutschman was the consensus No. 1 overall pick with Bobby Witt, Jr. second and Andrew Vaughn, third on our Draft Board and that’s exactly the order in which they were selected. 

As unpredictable as the 2018 draft was with a 5th round pick, three 7th-rounders and one 9th round pick among the top ten player career WARs, the 2019 group was much more top round heavy with all but one selected in the top two rounds.


The Top Ten Players:

 

As typically is the case, the first round is also littered with underachieving selections, including 10th overall selection Hunter Bishop (SF), 13th Keoni Cavaco (MIN), 24th Daniel Espino (CLE), 25th Kody Hoese (LAD) and 27th Ryan Jensen (CHI). None of those have reached the Major Leagues to date. Specifically, Cavaco and Jensen were both surprise picks for where they were selected as Prep Baseball had Cavaco as the 44th best prospect and Jensen 104th.


The Middle Ten Teams:

 

Two teams in particular stand out. Cleveland’s risky business bottomed-out as they selected preps with their top four picks, and five of the first six. None have currently reached MLB, while the lone collegian in that top six, Hunter Gaddis, has developed into the top WAR producer. And upon further examination of their entire 40 round draft, all five who have reached the Major Leagues to date, were college picks.

The Rockies top three picks – Michael Toglia, Aaron Schunk, Karl Kaufman – have all reached the Major Leagues, but all have produced a negative career WAR to date. Fourth-rounder Brenton Doyle, a D2 star from Shepherd Univ., WV is the Rocks’ current WAR leader and salvaged an otherwise unspectacular draft, although Isaac Collins (9th) and Christian Koss (12th) were two astute later round picks.


The Bottom Ten Teams:

 

The lone repeat offender in the bottom third tier is the Nationals who ranked 27th in 2018 before falling to last in this year’s review. The Nats have produced four Major Leaguers from its 2019 class, but all have produced a negative career WAR to date. Collectively, between both of those drafts, their picks have produced just 2.5 WAR.

All nine of the other bottom third clubs from 2018 (Dodgers, Marlins, Braves, Pirates, Rockies, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Yankees) improved to rank at least 19th for 2019.

Instead of the East Coast bias that the 2018 draft produced when the Yankees, Orioles, Nationals and Blue Jays all finished in the bottom five, those spots were spread equally throughout the country with two East Coast, two West Coast and one Midwest club represented.


The Top Ten Teams + One:

And, again, here is where the fun begins. It’s always much better to talk about the successes than belabor the beaten. Following a more logical trend, seven of the top ten teams selected their current career WAR leader in the first round, compared to only three teams doing so in 2018.

Once again, the Royals placed near the top – currently fourth in 2018 and second for 2019 – using a college-biased formula that started with the prep Witt at No. 2 overall, but then followed the selection of 15 consecutive collegians. Overall, Kansas City had another impressive draft that has seen eight of its top 14 picks reach the Major Leagues to date.

Detroit stayed consistent, currently ranking fifth in both 2018 and 2019.

Another organization faring well in both 2018 and 2019 was Prep Baseball with its annual Simul-Draft. Drafting in real-time with more limited information on prospect signability, medical issues, personality/psych testing and several other sources of information that MLB clubs rely on to make their selections (which can oftentimes be a good thing), Prep Baseball currently ranks only behind Baltimore in 2019 and just behind the 6th place Cardinals in 2018.

 


EFFICIENCY RANKINGS:

And finally, draft efficiency and the Return on Investment. It’s not my money and the nature of the beast is failure, but getting a strong return on one’s investment does have importance. Keep in mind that not all drafts are created equal – money matters and where a club picks in each round does as well. Below we rank clubs on the WAR produced per dollar spent on their 2019 draft.

Notably, Baltimore jumped from 28th in 2018 to No. 1 among the thirty MLB clubs so far for 2019, while the Yankees jumped from dead last in 2018 to currently locking down third overall for 2019 thanks to 1st-rounder Anthony Volpe (8.3 career WAR) and 2nd-rounder Josh Smith (7.3).

Drafting with the 10th overall bonus pool and picking directly after Detroit, Prep Baseball currently tops the Return on Investment in 2019, after finishing fourth in 2018.

Other top ten repeaters from both 2018 and 2019 include the Royals, Diamondbacks, Astros and Mariners.

 

For a look back at the highlights of the 2019 MLB Draft, please see Day One Draft Top Stories.

2019 Final Draft Board
2019 Simul-Draft

2018 Draft Review
2018 Simul-Draft