Day One of the 2026 MLB draft is in the books, which means four rounds are down and 16 rounds left to go today. We saw a handful of surprises and some fascinating storylines through the first day. The Prep Baseball and D1 Baseball staff break it down below.

+ Prep Baseball's Day Two Forecast

DAY ONE: STORYLINES

+ As most expected, it was Roch-1, Emerson-2, Lackey-3, Flora-4 before the unexpected began with Curiel at 5 and Rose at 6.

+ Georgia Tech’s Vahn Lackey and Drew Burress become the 15th set of college teammates to be selected in the top ten overall picks. Lackey was chosen No. 3 by the Twins and Burress No. 8 by the A’s.

+ Hitters ruled early as just one pitcher, Jackson Flora (UC Santa Barbara) was selected in the top 15 picks.

+ As usual with the latest trend, high contact college bats rose, while high whiffers fell. Zion Rose with just a 8.6% strikeout rate was the first of many bat-to-ballers to rise. His surprise selection had just worn off when North Carolina’s Jake Schaffner was chosen at No. 20. Schaffner had just a 9.4% strikeout rate this season. Carter Beck (Indiana State) and his 11.6% rate was next at No. 26, and the list continued with Georgia Tech’s Jarren Advincula (5.3%) at No. 45 and NC State’s Ty Head (9%) at No. 46.

+ On the flip side, Ace Reese (Mississippi State) was the only collegian chosen in the top 35 who had a strikeout rate greater than 20%.

+ Bloodlines were again abundant with Jacob Lombard (George’s son) chosen No. 14 by the Marlins, Landon Thome (Jim’s son) selected No. 34 by the White Sox and Peyton Bonds (Barry’s nephew) at No. 90 to the Giants.

+ SEC domination continued from the CWS to the MLB Draft. Of the 135 picks, 34 were from the conference, as well as 23 more who were signed to attend SEC schools.

+ Arkansas led all schools with five picks with Ryder Helfrick at No. 15 overall the first of the trio. UCLA, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M and North Carolina all had four picks during the four rounds of Day One.

+ Picks by conference:

• SEC: 34
• ACC: 19
• Big XII: 16
• Big Ten: 9
• Big West, CUSA, CAA, Independent (Oregon State), each with two.

+ Of the 135 selections, there were 93 four-year D1 college selections and 42 preps. None were from junior college.

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SURPRISE RISERS

+ Six picks in, the first big surprise was on the board. Louisville’s Zion Rose to the Royals quickly took the draft off its expected course. He’s certainly talented enough to be a first-rounder, but a collegiate left fielder chosen this tall came with some surprise. Maybe the plan for him is to give it another shot behind the plate where his value would skyrocket and the pick become better justified. This pick bears resemblance to Kyle Schwarber, a 15-20 industry ranked talent at the time, who went No. 4 overall to the Cubs in 2014. And the rest is history.

+ Eleven picks later Texas Tech’s Logan Hughes heard his name called at No. 17. The left fielder/first baseman received comps for his bat to Florida State’s James Tibbs who was the No. 13 overall pick in 2024.

+ He reminds a bit of former North Carolina shortstop Logan Warmoth, but Jake Schaffner at No. 20 certainly feels like a large overdraft. With average-to-fringe physical tools in his run/throw/defend/hit/power, Schaffner’s top ability is bat-to-ball. Was this a panic pick due to getting their pocket picked? Or was it a desire to low offer (save bonus pool) a prospect who had not submitted to a pre-draft physical, if that is indeed true? It’s tough to tell, but either way the best prospect should be selected at this point in the draft. We’ll never know, but there was a strong possibility he would have been available for the Red Sox next pick at No. 67, as Schaffner was No. 122 on our board. No doubt if you like the prospect, go get the prospect, but ahead of him were obviously numerous big talents, including preps Carson Boleman and Coleman Borthwick, and collegians Cam Flukey, Daniel Jackson and Cade Townsend, to name just a few.

+ Carter Beck. We like the player, and yes, he has strong analytics with a max EV of 114.8 and an EV90 of 108.1, but at this point in the draft we’d rather take our chances with established performers from top conferences that included Hunter Dietz, Tegan Kuhns, Cole Carlon and Mason Edwards who were all still on the board.

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SURPRISE FALLERS

+ Daniel Cuvet, Will Gasparino, Henry Ford and Tre Phelps were not selected in the 135 picks over four rounds on Saturday. None of the four ranked in our top 100, but all were expected to go at some point during Day One.

+ Sawyer Strosnider was selected No. 66 overall, but that was much lower than his physical tools would have placed him just last season when Jace LaViolette was chosen No. 27 overall or the year prior with Vance Honeycutt at No. 22. Hitting a baseball is hard and the TCU outfielder was a victim of the latest (for the good) draft trend; bat-to-ball.

+ Even the much lessened swing/miss of Texas A&M’s Gavin Grahovac couldn’t elevate his value beyond No. 81 overall. As much as his pick was a surprise fall, it was a steal for us. The Aggies’ slugger lowered his strikeout rate from 23.1% to 16.5% while raising his ISO. This dual improvement is rarely accomplished, especially in a major conference.

+ Jacob Lombard (Gulliver Prep, FL), a Miami recruit, appeared a lock in the top six, but sifted down to his hometown Marlins at No. 14. Some questions with the bat, and perhaps how high the floor, ultimately (must have) outweighed the unmatched athleticism, and the oversight of several clubs might ultimately become an organization cornerstone.

+ While the bonus number will ultimately tell the tale, Aiden Ruiz (The Stony Brook School, NY) appeared to slip roughly 10-15 slots below industry value to the Pirates. However, sitting with the 6th largest bonus pool, and a likely haircut at No. 5 to Derek Curiel, Ruiz’s dollar value is likely to be closer to a top 25 selection.

+ Similar to what happened in 2025 with the White Sox selection of Jaden Fauske, Cole Prosek’s (Magnolia Heights HS, MS) lack of position likely pushed his ultra-talented bat down the board a bit which allowed the South Siders to, once again, add a massive prep bat to the organization, and ultimately acquire three first rounders (Cholowsky, Thome, Prosek) on Day 1.

+ Ranked No. 64 on our Draft Board, it was somewhat expected that prep strongman Dominic Santarelli (St. Joseph HS, WI) would not be selected in the top four rounds. Not only does he possess a risky profile as a mature-bodied high school player who profiles to first base, he’s also signed to attend LSU which likely affected his signability after a certain pick during day one.

+ Texas slugger and outfielder Aiden Robbins going No. 92 overall to the New York Mets was another notable surprise fall on day one of the MLB draft. Robbins, though he has some detractors, was getting some legitimate late first-round to early-to-mid second round buzz a few weeks ago. However, he dropped all the way to the third round on draft day.

+ Another fall that surprised us a little bit was Texas A&M outfielder Caden Sorrell going No. 62 overall. Sorrell is another talented premium outfielder who was getting first-round buzz earlier this spring. However, the swing and miss aspect of his game has caused some concern, and the Cubs took advantage of that slip by getting a clear-cut first-round talent near the bottom of the second round. Sorrell is a premium athlete, defender and power hitter. He can be a premium hitter at the big league level if the swing and miss improves.

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STEALS

+ Jack Slightom (Lyons Township HS, IL) defined a steal at No. 56 overall. The uber-athletic quarterback/righthanded pitcher turned summer murmurs into a slamdunk spring that had some considering him as the best right-hander in the class.

+ For reasons noted above, Gavin Grahovac (Texas A&M) at No. 81 may have been the best pick of all of day one.

+ Beau Peterson (Mill Valley HS, KS) and Will Brick (Christian Brothers HS, TN) at Nos. 42 and 45, respectively on our Draft Board, went surprisingly low, but to two teams in curious positions. Peterson, a Texas recruit, had a semi-bumpy summer that may have given clubs some pause, but the Astros have stretched the dollar early, and he is still likely to covet some substantial signing bonus. Brick, a reclassified Mississippi State recruit, appeared destined for school at the end of the third round, and there is still a chance that he does, but the Blue Jays lack of picks, and the potential savings from their first two, means his fourth round selection is likely tied to a hefty deal.

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STAFF'S FAVORITE PICK(S)

David Seifert: Where do I start, there were so many. At No. 6 on our Draft Board, Carson Boleman (Southside Christian, SC) might not have had the best spring season, but that doesn’t detract from his talent. The 6-foot-4 lefthander who is a Wake Forest recruit won’t likely see Winston-Salem, but he will sign for $3M+ and become a prized San Francisco prospect. Jacob Lombard was another favorite at No. 14 overall by the Marlins. He’s arguably the top athlete in the entire draft class and a top six overall talent. Finishing the trifecta of favorite prep picks was Brody Bumila (Bishop Feehan, MA) in the 3rd round, No. 89 overall. An athletic 6-foot-9 lefthander who touched 100+ this spring before injuring his elbow that required TJ surgery, Bumila is likely to fully recover and once again blow high octane heat to go along with advanced offspeed. Favorite pick collegians include Daniel Jackson (Georgia) at No. 37, Sawyer Strosnider (TCU) at No. 66, Gavin Grahovac in the 3rd round, No. 81 overall and behind him, Aidan Robbins (Texas) at No. 92. Typically, I’m not a fan of elevated swing/miss, but in each of these cases the pick was in the right spot, the remaining tools of each have potential impact and in three of the four cases the individual’s whiff was less in 2026 than the previous season.

Shooter Hunt: Taking out the obvious picks from the top of the board that include the slamdunk prospects destined to go in some order in the first, the Brewers’ selection of Trey Ebel (Corona HS, CA) was one that had me kicking myself for not being louder. Ebel’s bat stood out in spring looks for its professional look, eye opening bat speed and impact barrel, and the defense jumped a grade from the summer. Combined with the makeup, his profile screamed as a strong pick (he was still ranked as the #23 prep prospect). The Yankees also displayed a clear vision and understanding of the market while amplifying the 4th lowest bonus pool with a pair of premium southpaws in Hunter Dietz (Arkansas) and Sean Duncan (Terry Fox SS, BC). Both were presumptive first rounders, and to get them at Nos. 35 and 63, respectively, might ultimately be a steal, even if Duncan is likely to miss a season after injury. The Nationals final pick of the day, RHP Cooper Harris (Flower Mound HS, TX) looked destined to be the next big arm to blossom at the University of Texas, but is now likely headed to DC. The No. 10-ranked prep right-hander, Harris carries the ingredients to blossom in coming years.

Ian Smith: It’s extremely tough to not get excited about some of the pitching that landed from the backend of the first round through second. Cam Flukey to the Tigers at 22nd and Carson Boleman at 24 to the Giants have a chance to be immense value alongside a trio of prep arms in the 2nd in Kaiden McCarthy (Braves), Kaden Waechter (Giants), and Logan Schmidt (Guardians), who all found tremendous landing spots that can maximize their upside.

Andy Sroka: Tyler Bell (Kentucky) and the Rockies just seem to fit together nicely, and Bell has what it takes to be a franchise shortstop and a star for a team desperate for one – and getting the opportunity to acquire that potential at pick No. 10 overall makes it that much more exciting for Colorado. He just checks so many boxes for progressive and analytically-minded clubs and he also plays like a throwback, vintage grinder that the old school fan can’t help but root for either. Bell brings stability to shortstop, and he’s a genuine switch-hitter with game power that will obviously play inside Coors Field. The Rockies couldn’t have asked for more out of pick No. 10 when they first learned that’s where they’d be slotted officially.

Some more favorites: The Rays knew they’d be happy with whoever they drafted at No. 2, and the likeliest outcome landed in prep shortstop Grady Emerson, but they backed that up with another slick prep shortstop in Taj Marchand (James Island HS, SC) at No. 33. Marchand has budding strength that could blossom into his best overall tool in pro ball should he get to it enough in-game, and he’s also a twitchy athlete with burst at shortstop and a big arm. It’s a really fun second-round selection, especially after taking a talent like Emerson 31 picks earlier.

The Blue Jays didn’t have a ton to work with today knowing that they weren’t picking until No. 39, and only three Day One picks total. Then, with one of the day’s last selections, Toronto took a prep catcher they’d been linked to in earlier rounds: Will Brick (Christian Brothers HS, TN), one of the youngest players in the class. He’s an excellent defender who is well-liked as a batterymate, which raises his overall floor here, and he has big raw right-handed power. After re-classing up in the fall, Brick didn’t light it up offensively this spring which then pushed him down boards, but there’s no denying he has first-round tools and the Jays in turn get to feel like they made the most of their Day One opportunity.

Kendall Rogers: The Mets getting Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins in the third round, and the Cubs getting Texas A&M outfielder Caden Sorrell late in the second round both caught my attention as fantastic picks. Robbins has a fantastic hit tool and has incredible makeup. Sorrell is a premium athlete and defender, and has massive power … yes, he does have some swing and miss, but I’m still buying the stock. The Brewers getting TCU outfielder Sawyer Strosnider at the very back of the second round also caught my attention. Strosnider is a first-round talent who dealt with shoulder issues throughout the 2026 campaign …. One more pick I just loved was the Cardinals getting Kansas State shortstop Dee Kennedy in the fourth round. Kennedy can play up the middle at the next level and has progressively gotten better offensively, and in terms of power, with each season of experience at the plate. Kennedy is another premium athlete that wouldn’t be a surprise to see move through a system to the big leagues at a decent rate … I love the Pirates getting North Carolina starting pitcher Jason DeCaro in the third round and 80th overall. DeCaro was absolutely electric during the NCAA tournament with premium velocity and high-spin rate secondary stuff. And with his mentality and makeup on the bump, I’m buying some serious stock in the UNC hurler.

Aaron Fitt: Strosnider, Robbins and Sorrell feel like the most obvious answers, but they’ve already been covered above. Of course, college outfielders as a demographic have a worse historical track than college infielders, and a handful of infielders caught my eye as values I really liked: Wake Forest corner infielder Kade Lewis (Cleveland/4th) has a chance to be one of the best pure hitters in this draft class; injured Florida State slugger Myles Bailey (Cubs/2C) gives me Big Papi vibes; Oregon’s Ryan Cooney (Toronto/3rd) and Auburn’s Chris Rembert (Pittsburgh/Sup-2) strike me as offensive second basemen who are very good bets to hit; UCLA’s Roman Martin (Oakland/4th) and Virginia’s Eric Becker (Cincinnati/2nd) are bigger-bodied infielders who are athletic enough to have at least a shot to play shortstop, but should hit enough to reach the big leagues even if they wind up at the hot corner. As for pitchers, I’m planting my flag on Florida’s Liam Peterson (Cleveland/1st), who has the best raw four-pitch arsenal in this draft for my money, coupled with the physique of an MLB ace. That package has yet to translate into the kind of results we’ve expected from him, but I’m confident that his best days are ahead, and he gives the Guardians top-of-the-draft upside at pick 19.

Mark Etheridge: Taylor Rabe from Ole Miss went 30th overall to the Royals. He’s a low-mileage righty that improved as mich as anyone during the 2026 season. He’s a big body, has real stuff, and pounds the zone. After missing 2024 and being limited in 2025, Rabe is just scratching the surface on what he can be.

Joe Healy: The Reds got good value with the selection of Justin Lebron at 18 overall. Had Lebron played to the top of his potential last season, we might have been talking about him alongside the likes of Cholowsky at the top of the draft, but instead, he slipped to the late teens after a season marked by the lowest batting average and the highest error total of his Alabama career. That might be a more worrying trend if it weren’t for the fact that Lebron is still the most exciting player on the field basically every time he takes the field.

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BEST DAY ONE HAULS

David Seifert: I usually like who the White Sox select every year and 2026 was no exception. With their first three picks they chose first round talents Cholowsky, Prosek and Thome. Strong-armed Joey Volchko (Georgia) was also an excellent pick in the third round at No. 77 overall and heavy sinkerballer Eric Segura (Oregon State) at No. 105 was as well.

Shooter Hunt: Giants. An influx of frontline arms AND a Bonds?! Love it. Snagging the top two pitching prospects in the class, and a third who very well could have gone in the first round at many points throughout the spring, and the Giants executed exceptionally well with the third biggest draft pool. With righthander Jackson Flora (UC Santa Barbara), the club gains a potential frontline starter with an unmatched ceiling coming out of the college ranks. Pairing that pick at No. 4 with another top ten talent with frontline potential from the prep ranks, lefthander Carson Bolemon (Southside Christian HS, SC) meant an immediate victory for the organization. However, it wasn’t done, and righthander Kaden Waechter (Jesuit HS, FL) joined an embarrassment of riches as another arm who was, at one time, considered the top high school right-hander in the class. Finally, to add outfielder Peyton Bonds (Rutgers), a prospect who warranted this selection even without his unmistakable last name, only solidified a vision from an organization focused not on simply competing, but on contending.

Ian Smith: The impact that the Cardinals and Athletics found on day one was outstanding but I find myself loving what the Diamondbacks did overall. A chance for a pair of fast-moving prospects in Ryder Helfick and Carson Kerce can raise the floor of this class in a hurry with potential to be big-league regulars quickly. Blake Bryant holds some of the highest projection of any prep RHP in the class and you round it out with more high-floor types in Brayden Dowd (FSU) and Josh McDevitt (Missouri) that can provide value and save some money heading into day two.

Andy Sroka: The Cardinals had seven Day One picks to make and it can be hard to juggle that alongside signability questions, etc., and yet it really feels like they made the most of it. They injected their system with some premium prep talent with lottery ticket upside while balancing it with some likable college performers, a couple of whom they might save a bit of money on to help in Day Two. Georgia prep outfielder Trevor Condon (Etowah HS, GA) has the ingredients to become a fan favorite, playing with an earned swagger with run/power traits that he himself said resemble new NL Central rival Pete Crow-Armstrong. Then, with their second pick (No. 32), they grabbed college sophomore Tegan Kuhns (Tennessee) who only got better and better throughout the spring with an electric two-pitch combo in a live fastball and biting curveball. Eighteen picks later at No. 50, St. Louis took the youngest player in the MLB Draft, Alabama prep shortstop Rocco Maniscalco (Oxford HS, AL), whose velvety defense and arm strength make it feel likely he has the skills to be a pro shortstop, even if the bat underwhelmed this spring.

The Cards went college the rest of the way: UCF outfielder Andrew Williamson, West Virginia right-hander Dawson Montesa, Texas Tech outfielder Caden Ferraro, and Kansas State shortstop Dee Kennedy. Williamson’s a proven college performer with a sound left-handed approach who might be a center fielder. Montesa is a young college junior and was new to Division I this year after thriving at a DII program on Long Island. Ferraro was a JUCO National Champion at Blinn (TX) where he was a middle-of-the-order slugger before he looked more like a bat-to-ball guy at Texas Tech. And Kennedy might just be starting to peak after turning in a 1.194 OPS as a junior while he reduced his K% sharply, and his glove at short is what helped him get everyday opportunities in college to begin with.

Kendall Rogers: I really like what the Athletics took on the first day of the MLB draft. You have a surefire superstar in outfielder Drew Burress in the first round, you have a first-round talent in second-rounder and lefthanded pitcher Mason Edwwards in the second round, and there are other strong picks here, too. For instance, Arkansas righthanded pitcher Gabe Gaeckle has elite stuff and could honestly help a Major League bullpen pretty soon, while NC State righthanded pitcher Jacob Dudan is a premium arm when he’s healthy. If those three arms can stay healthy, that’s one heck of a pitching crop for the Athletics on the first day of the draft. I also really liked the Cubs’ first three picks in Ole Miss righthanded pitcher Cade Townsend, plus fellow collegiate sluggers Caden Sorrell and Myles Bailey. Townsend is a premium arm who dealt with some arm setbacks during the 2026 campaign. He’s a premium asset for the Cubs system if he stays healthy.

Aaron Fitt: I’ll echo Kendall here — I loved what the Athletics and Cubs did. And I’ll throw Cleveland into the mix on the strength of two of my favorite picks from Day One, the aforementioned pair of Liam Peterson in the first and Kade Lewis in the fourth. If you’re into college-centric drafts (as the D1Baseball staff typically is), you should also be drawn to Cincinnati’s Day One haul, which includes star infielders Justin Lebron (Alabama), Eric Becker (Virginia) and Mulivai Levu (UCLA) plus talented pitchers Ty Horn (Nebraska) and Ethan Norby (ECU) in rounds 3 and 4. I like every one of those picks, even if Horn went higher than expected based on pre-draft rankings.

Mark Etheridge: I like the White Sox’s haul, and it’s not just about Roch Cholowsky (however Manfred pronounced it). Add in prep shortstop Landon Thome, intriguing prep bat Cole Prosek, Georgia stuff-muster Joey Volchko, who showed what he’d been teasing when he dominated in Omaha, and a potential quick-moving prospect in Oregon State righthander Eric Segura. There’s volume and high ceilings there.

Joe Healy: Acknowledging ahead of time a bias toward drafts that lean heavily on college players, I came away impressed with the haul of college performers the Athletics brought in. Drew Burress has been one of the best college hitters over the last three seasons, Mason Edwards was nothing short of dominant for USC in the spring, Gabe Gaeckle has had stretches (particularly in relief for Arkansas) in which he’s been basically unhittable, Jacob Dudan was in the midst of a breakout season as a starting pitcher before going down with injury in the spring and Roman Martin was probably one of the most underrated college bats in this draft after being overshadowed by teammate Roch Cholowsky for the last three years.

SIMUL-DRAFT RESULTS

Beginning in 2018 we’ve selected our own amateur draft class in real time. We also pick with a bonus pool, just like each of the 30 clubs. Our draft pool amount changes each year, ranging from 15th in the initial 2018 Simul-Draft to the top pool in 2023 to the 30th overall pool in 2024 and 15th again last year.

This season my partner and I, Shooter Hunt, picked with the 10th overall bonus pool. With that, we’ll pick hand-in-hand with the Athletics who do have the 10th largest pool.

Again, it's important to note that each of our picks were made in real time as the draft is taking place. This is not a mock or a post-draft of best available. It's also important to note the challenge we have selecting players without knowing their signability. We may think they will sign, but without a phone call and an offer (neither of which we do) we never know for sure who will sign for a given amount. This lack of insider information cost us dearly in 2021 when we selected Kumar Rocker in the 1st round. He did not sign after being selected 10th overall by the Mets, costing both a highly-valued prospect, along with the entire assigned pick value. Similarly, our 8th round pick of 2021, Austin Krob, did not sign, costing us two of our top ten overall selections.

It may also cost us our third round pick this year, but fingers crossed that prep Ethan Bass is selected and signed on day two.

1st round, 8th overall: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
2nd round, 47th: Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern Cal
Comp 2, 73rd: Gavin Grahovac, 3B, Texas A&M
3rd round, 83rd: Ethan Bass, SS, Glenbrook North HS, IL
4th round, 111th: Roman Martin, SS, UCLA

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