The 2026 Prep Baseball Future Games was the most talent-packed ever, now that every single incoming junior in the country will open their recruitment all at the same time, officially. Our pitching data is now live on the site and we've made it easier than ever before for coaches, players, and fans to comb through these metrics to find the players who stood out during gameplay on the mound.

In this piece, we’ll be analyzing the best fastballs from the Future Games by accessing all of the data we collected at LakePoint. We’re assessing the swing-and-miss heaters, the bowling ball sinkers, and everything in between.

MORE FUTURE GAMES HEADLINES

• 2026 Commitment Tracker
• Senior Future Games: Data Darlings
• 17U Data Dive, Pos. Players
• 16U Data Dive, Pos. Players
• 16U Interactive Pitching Data
• 17U Rosters
• 16U Rosters

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QUICK PRIMER

Throughout, we’ll be highlighting some of the more elaborate metrics, some seen before on our site and others we’re testing out by using the Future Games data. Here’s a quick primer on what some of these metrics measure and how you can apply them yourself as you sift through the data yourself.

+ Vertical Approach Angle (VAA): The angle the fastball is falling at when it crosses the plate. It’s always “negative” because every pitch descends out of the pitcher’s hand and into the zone, just at different rates. At the 2026 Future Games, the average VAA for fastballs was about -5.5 degrees. The flatter the fastball (closer to zero) means the ball stays on a level plane and hides well at the top of the zone which generally causes hitters to swing under it for whiffs. Steeper (farther from zero) means the fastball is diving downhill, which is what you want down in the zone for ground balls. Neither variation of fastball is better than the other, they both can become weapons in their own right, yielding different kinds of results, yet still effective overall.

+ Adjusted VAA (aVAA): Raw VAA is partly just a byproduct of how tall a guy is and where he releases the ball, even though that’s probably a little too simplified a way to view it. Still, we created Adjusted VAA here in order to strip out some of those variables in order to answer this: Is this fastball flatter or steeper than it should be for his arm slot/size/extension, etc.? A positive aVAA means the fastball is flatter than expected, it’s got sneaky ride that likely plays above its velocity. A negative aVAA means the fastball is steeper than expected, generating more drop which is unique in its own right. For aVAA, fastball scores on the leaderboards that are +1.0 or higher are notably flat; scores -1.0 or lower are notably steep.

+ Height-Adjusted IVB (Carry): Induced Vertical Break is how much the ball rides and resists gravity from backspin. Sometimes, taller pitchers who throw from higher slots get some free ride that’s unfairly represented in the data, so we attempted to level the playing field with aIVB or Carry. This metric measures ride above what his delivery predicts, the extra carry he's creating himself. For aIVB or Carry, a positive score qualifies as a Carry fastball while a negative score starts to qualify as a sinker-type. For reference, fastball aIVB scores +3.0 and above have notable Carry; aIVB -3.0 signal real, true sinking action.

+ Sinker Score: We generally placed all fastballs into one bucket to classify them ourselves, and our Sinker Score helps identify which fastballs appear to be true, effective sinkers. These are fastballs that drop instead of ride, that run hard arm-side and get downhill. Scored 1-100, sinkers that score closer to 100 are the bowling ball types that fit the traditional mold of a sinker with heavy movement and velo that should consistently miss barrels as hitters beat these balls into the ground.

+ Cutter Score: Inverse to our Sinker Score, the Cutter Score (1-100) rewards glove-side or reduced arm-side run and gyro-leaning spin. In the score, velocity is intentionally excluded so the score reflects hand action itself. Horizontal movement is average arm-side movement in inches (lower, or negative, means the ball cuts glove-side).

+ Runway: We introduced this into some of our Senior Future Games analysis, but Runway is essentially a way to better quantify projection. In other words, we’re assessing these players’ current statures to determine how much “good weight or muscle” their frame can add. Players who already have velocity, or bat speed, or bat strength, etc., yet have lengthy Runways carry huge potential at the next level.

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DOES IT HOLD UP?

Before you view the leaderboards, let's take a quick peek at whether or not these numbers actually mean anything on the mound. 

Even across tiny, two-inning showcase samples, it appears that they do. Across 500 pitchers with viable game data, a fastball’s aVAA tracked its in-game strikeout rate about as closely as raw velocity did, and aIVB (or Carry) sorted swing-and-miss cleanly. The top 25 percent of Carry fastballs missed bats at roughly 1.4 times the rate of the bottom quarter. One caveat is worth repeating here: A flat-planed fastball really only plays when there's Carry behind it. Flat fastballs that also carried struck out 30 percent of the hitters they faced while flat fastballs with no real ride struck out 22 percent. That’s why the Carry and aVAA boards below should always be read together.

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Best Pound-for-Pound Fastballs

These are the heaters that grade out as plus on their own merit, pairing premium velocity with a very unique shape or elite action, most thrown by arms with Runway still to come. If you’re projecting which of these arms could hear their name called in the '28 MLB Draft a couple of years from now on the strength of the fastball alone, start here. RHP Kohen Poplin (Venice HS, FL) is the headliner as the reigning 2026 Future Game Most Valuable Pitcher, but it goes beyond that. His mid-90s fastball is among the flattest with the most carry in the entire class, a rare combination that misses bats at every level.

Avg/Max FB, VAA, aVAA, Carry (Height-Adj IVB), and Sinker Score are TrackMan-based fastball measurements from Future Games game data; Runway is our frame-projection estimate. Qualified arms threw 10-plus tracked fastballs. Ht/Wt reflect measured Workout Day figures where available.

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Best Carry Fastballs

Fastballs with the purest ride or "Carry" in the class. These pitches are generating the most Induced Vertical Break above what their delivery predicts. In other words, these are the ones we project will continue to keep earning whiffs. Two arms separate themselves at the very top, and neither set velo records or anything, which is a perfect use case for our Carry metric here. LHP Lawson Moore (Gatewood HS, GA), a projectable left-hander, produced the single best Carry mark at the event, and RHP Kash Sissener (Snow Canyon HS, UT) isn’t far behind, and he's got big Runway and a huge velo ceiling too. One sleeper worth circling: RHP Kamden Johnston (Lincoln-Way East HS, IL), whose fastball signigicant raw IVB with a genuinely flat plane (+1.46 aVAA), the rare arm elite on both of our ride measurements at once.

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Best Sinkers

Here's the other end of the spectrum: bowling ball sinkers. These fastballs feature heavy arm-side run, real sink, and a downhill plane. These are the fastballs hitters beat into the ground rather than lift. Sinker Score rates how completely each fastball fits that mold from 1 to 100. RHP Tommy Driver (Ballston Spa HS, NY) stands out as the group’s most notable, despite being placed into the No. 5 spot by our model, since he's generating an average of almost 19 inches of run on a 92 mph fastball with a huge amount of Runway inside a 6-foot-5, 192-pound build.

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Best Cutters

Here’s a category that can get overlooked at times, especially by those simply looking for velo + ride traits. These fastballs are the natural Cutters from clear supinators, or arms whose fastball already shows reduced or no arm-side run (or genuine glove-side cut) paired with tighter, gyro-leaning spin. A pitcher who appears to consistently supinate the ball this way can typically build out a more diverse mix of breaking balls and changeups with all sorts of different movement profiles. Pure Carry-type pronators are often limited to their riding fastball and a downer breaking ball, and/or a changeup of some kind.

In other words, this board is less about the fastball as a finished weapon and more about the uniqueness these pitchers offer, plus the potential to utilize a wide range of offspeed options down the road, if they don't already.

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Biggest Potential Fastballs

This last group is the projection bet. Each of these arms flashes one genuinely loud or rare trait, whether it's simply big velocity, elite spin, or a plus shape, but is missing a complementary piece that keeps it off the pound-for-pound board as of today. Maybe it's a high-spin fastball that's not yet converting that spin into ride, a mid-90s heater still searching for a shape to match, or a plus Carry fastball just lacking velocity, currently. Pair a loud trait or two with real Runway, and you have exactly the kind of arm a development-minded college coaching staff dreams on, which is why we’re watching this group as closely as any.

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Fastball metrics compiled from TrackMan tracking at the 2026 Future Games; movement, spin, VAA, Adjusted VAA, Carry, and Sinker Score reflect that game data. Runway is a Prep Baseball frame-projection estimate. Explore the full field yourself in the interactive pitching data.

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