In this first week of 2026, our Draft HQ staff took the opportunity to consider the most impactful questions hanging over the high school and college baseball scenes entering the new year – and then they tried answering them.

PREP QUESTIONS & PREDICTIONS

1. Which prep left-hander and shortstop will separate themselves from the pack?

The high school ranks are headlined by three name-brand shortstops headed into the new year: Jacob Lombard (FL), Tyler Spangler (CA), and Grady Emerson (TX). Meanwhile, there are three prep southpaws capable of earning attention with the first pick of the draft, which is not so common a thing: Gio Rojas (FL), Carson Bolemon (SC), and Logan Schmidt (CA).

Rojas will play the toughest schedule of the bunch with multiple marquee opportunities against high-level talent. Spangler should see some impressive NorCal arms which will provide ample opportunity for clubs in the top-10 to evaluate a (likely) high asking price. The other four have established themselves as slam-dunk first-rounders, and far beyond the posting of a high school spring, the evaluation of how high the ceiling and the likelihood of approaching it will come into play. Finally, Coleman Borthwick (FL) stands to be the most polarizing prospect of the bunch.

Coleman Borthwick (9/18/25)

Teams tend to stay away from his profile in the top-five, historically, but strong belief and strong scouting from those in the top-10 might ultimately make the big two-way prospect too good to pass up.

2. Who will be this year’s shortstop sleeper that grabs helium?

• SS Elliot Lascelles (CAN): A bat-to-ball enthusiast whose swing decisions and strong defensive skills are sure to perk the attention of all around the league.

• SS Archer Horn (CA): The heavy-barreled left-handed hitter can flat out hit, and has shown well at shortstop while hinting as a plus-defender at third base. The Stanford commitment will hold a high pricetag, but Horn’s box presence, competitiveness, and makeup might push clubs to go all-in right now.

• SS Trey Ebel (CA) / SS Brody Schumacher (CA): It wouldn’t feel right without some SoCal prospects searching for helium. Ebel is one of the youngest players in the draft with impressive makeup and bloodlines and a right-handed stick that has trended up in a hurry with similarities to Gavin Fien a year ago. Schumacher, another prospect with big league bloodlines, has one of the highest floors in the class, and should a power surge start to show throughout the spring, expect his name to get even buzzier.

• SS Will Yow (VA): Yow is the one holding the most helium headed into the new year, and the ultra tooled-up Virginia recruit trended towards a more polished look throughout the fall. DMV prospects have shined in recent years, and Yow has a chance to be the next.

3. How many high school players will go in the first round?

For the purpose of this exercise, we will stick to the top-25 picks prior to any team selecting twice and excluding the later “first rounders” of clubs penalized by the Competitive Balance Tax. In setting the line at 10.5, we will take the over as the frontline potential of so many of the prep prospects, along with a more subdued collegiate pitching crop, might force more clubs to become aggressive in a higher risk/higher reward model early on.

4. Which MLB club stands to gain the most from this year’s high school class?

• The Pirates pick at Nos. 5, 34, 44, 51, and 81 and have, historically, shown no issue with attacking high school players, and more specifically pitching, with the draft. The trio of picks at Nos. 34, 44, 51, when considering the density of impact prep right-handers, should allow the organization to continue the arsenal build up of the past few years. Still more, the pick at No. 81 (along with another at 111) might provide ample opportunity for stretching the dollar, and this year’s talent crop hails from a demographic that the Bucs are comfortable dealing with.
• The Rays (Pick Nos. 2, 33, 49, 74, 86) also hold a considerable number of picks with a large bonus pool, and can easily stretch their dollar to help procure both quality and quantity. While the unique attributes of the prep pitching is likely to provide mid-round value for Tampa’s advanced player development system, a more strategic push towards bat-to-ball impact athletes with speed, in recent years, is where the club is likely to spend its money up front. Especially given the excitement of this high school outfield crop.

5. Prediction: A former high school draftee will sue the NCAA for Division-I eligibility.

This is the biggest “hot take” of this crystal ball session. With the recent NCAA basketball case that saw an NBA-drafted player go back to college (Baylor) to play at the mid-season point, it brings up the question of whether or not that might happen in college baseball. In the past, high school draftees who did not reach a certain level in professional baseball were able to return to college to some levels by applying for reinstatement of amateur status. Might this become an option at the Division I level now? There is a slim chance that the actual Minor Leagues might become the feeder system for both Major League Baseball and college's DI.

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COLLEGE QUESTIONS & PREDICTIONS

1. Which premium position is deepest at the college level for the MLB Draft?

Shortstop. The top-three overall collegians all play the position: Roch Cholowsky (UCLA), Justin Lebron (Alabama), and Tyler Bell (Kentucky).

2. Which college shortstop is capable of grabbing first-round helium this spring?

Steven Milam (LSU). Currently rated as a second- or third-rounder, if Milam's added strength turns into in-game juice, then he could rise into the first. Also, Jonathan Mendez (UC Santa Barbara) is another candidate, slugging .559 last spring.

3. Which position is otherwise the deepest in college in 2026?

Outfield. Five prospects in our top-10 play the outfield: Sawyer Strosnider (TCU), Derek Curiel (LSU), AJ Gracia (Virginia), Drew Burress (Georgia Tech), and Caden Sorrell (Texas A&M).

4. Who's a southpaw with the ability to make a leap this spring?

Hayden Johnson (Coastal Carolina). He's currently projected to fit in between the third and fifth rounds of the MLB Draft, but he has the ability to earn a pick inside the second round or higher. He has a fastball up to 97 mph with a swing-and-miss big bender breaking ball.

5. Predictions: I will become a 1st-rounder if I ____.

• C Ryder Helfrick (Arkansas): "... continue improvement on swing and miss."
• RHP Joey Volchko (Georgia): "... improve the shape of my fastball (which he reportedly did this fall) and command it, along with a secondary consistently in the zone."
• LHP Hunter Dietz (Arkansas): "... stay healthy and pitch like I have this fall as a starter in the SEC."
• RHP Luke McNeillie (Florida): "... maintain my stuff while transitioning into an SEC starter."
• OF Lucas Moore (Louisville): "... add more juice to my swing." Moore's hardest hit ball last season 104 mph, which is well below average. While he's not yet as famous, he's arguably a similar prospect to Enrique Bradfield Jr. (Vanderbilt), who went 17th overall in 2023.

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