MLB Draft: Forecasting the Numbers (2026)
October 16, 2025

With the 2025 MLB Draft class now fully in pro ball and the signing numbers locked in, the bonus data paints a telling picture of where organizations are placing their bets. From top-heavy spending on elite prep athletes to aggressive over-slot deals in the middle rounds, the trends from this past summer offer more than just financial figures, they reveal shifting philosophies across front offices.
As attention shifts toward the 2026 class — a group already flashing impact tools and early helium — the bonus trends from 2025 offer a broader view of where the league is heading. Which player profiles drew the heaviest investment? What positions saw a noticeable uptick in value? And how is the draft landscape evolving in terms of risk, reward, and upside?
Below, Prep Baseball’s DraftHQ takes a look back at seven-figure signing bonuses from the 2025 MLB Draft before forecasting what to expect in 2026.
The 2025 MLB Draft further validated the strength of Prep Baseball’s scouting and evaluation process. All of the top 25 high school signing bonuses went to players ranked in our Top 50, underscoring the accuracy of our assessments. Of the record 46 prep players who signed seven-figure deals, all but four were featured in our Top 105. This continued a four-year trend of consistent, high-level performance from our boots-on-the-ground and analytical teams, reinforcing Prep Baseball’s reputation as a trusted leader in amateur scouting.
NOTE: It is important to note that the Draft Board and rankings that Prep Baseball puts together are not an analyzation of where or who will be selected in a particular draft (there are MANY other factors that go into this outside of talent), but rather a true “Big Board” of talent values of which is predicated on how high of an upside a particular prospect may have combined with how likely they are to reach said upside.
***46 prep players received seven-figure bonuses (37 in 2024, 40 in 2023)***
(RHP Will Hynes ($950K) & C Taitn Gray ($920K) not included)
+12 players received $4+ million (Up from just 3 in 2024 & 6 in 2023)
+31 players received $2+ million (26 in 2024, 27 in 2023)
Top 50 State Breakdown
California (10)
Florida (5)
Georgia/North Carolina/Texas (4)
Mississippi (3)
IL/NJ/NY/OK/OR/TN (2)
AL/IA/IN/CAN/MD/NV/WA/WI (1)
Seven-Figure Positional Breakdown:
Shortstops (19; 11 in ‘24)
Right-handed pitchers (10; 9 in ‘24)
Outfielders (6; 6 in ‘24)
Left-handed pitchers (5; 8 in ‘24)
Catchers (3; 1 in ‘24)
Third base (2; 2 in ‘24)
Top 40 Prep Picks $$$ TOTAL:
2025: $131,669,100
2024: $99,693,425
2023: $108,658,550
+ Among the Top 25 (prep) signing bonuses of each of the past five years, only one player (#69 RHP Steven Echavarria, 2023) has come from outside of the Top 60 prospects in Prep Baseball’s rankings.
+ Just 11 of the 196 (5.6%) seven-figure bonuses were from outside of the Prep Baseball Top 100 with all receiving at or just over the $1M threshold. More intriguingly, nine of the eleven were right-handed pitchers with most coming from the ranking pool set at 100-200 in the class. This helped reaffirm the rising size of the pool (more similar arms) while moving down draft tiers.
+ Looking at Prep Baseball’s Top 75 players is a strong start for where the top 25 bonuses will come from. Yes, a fair number of players will opt to go college, but the evaluations of the many boots-on-the-ground staff members have developed a list that is the industry standard.
