The 'new age' of recruiting began during the spring of 2022, forever changing the way that college coaches recruit high school players, especially at the Division I level. For years prior to 2022, the recruiting landscape had no rules in place to establish when a coach could extend a prospective recruit a scholarship offer. We saw this shape the landscape, especially amongst Power 4 programs, into a world where the most coveted recruits were 8th & 9th graders. We saw it each year as Indiana had several freshman in each class that had verbally committed to Divison I programs prior to their second semester of high school. There was a rule put into place during the spring of 2022 that restricted NCAA institutions from having contact with prospective recruits until August 1st of their junior year; the recruiting world we live in now. While coaches can still have some communication in-person before that, specifically in instances like camps that they host on their own campus, they cannot offer a player until Aug 1 of the junior year. 

Three years into this landscape, we are beginning to see how how the top-of-the-top are operating under these new parameters. This data dive serves two purposes:

1. Provide education to the way the recruiting process now works. We at Prep Baseball are learning the new 'way of the world' alongside parents and prospects. 

2. To provide clear data for prospects to strive to acheive as they are attending events during their sophomore season. Point blank, if a player believes he is a certain level prospect, we provide the average size/toolset/profile of those who have committed to those programs before him, painting a clear picture of how they need to measure up. As always, there will be outliers, and the glove and hit tool cannot fully be measured from a quantitative perspective. Knowing that, the metrics provided serve more as a benchmark than a 'set-in-stone' must-have to end up at a specific program or level. 

The August 1st date now gets hyped more than any date on the recruiting calendar. While coaches may not be able to contact players, they are certainly doing the work to know who to contact on August 1st beforehand. They are hosting camps, evaluating during the spring and summer, scouring the Prep Baseball database, talking to our staff, talking to travel and high school coaches, amongst many other ways - in order to be prepared to extend offers as soon as they are able. This date creates an exciting time for prospects, but also plenty of anxiety in what I have seen over the past three classes at this time. I aim to mitigate some of the anxiety by answering some of the unknown through data, painting a clear picture with what we've seen with the first three years of this landscape, using data. All the data used in this dive is indicative of the tools/traits that each prospect showed during their sophomore season only at our Prep Baseball showcase events. 

While it is not the end all be all, it is the start to the recruiting process, and we often see the most premier talent taken during this window. August 1st begins with zero committed players, and our data shows that somewhere around 32 Division I commitments will happen from juniors within Indiana in the 5 months that follow August 1st. We know that this overall number of Divison I commitments from a given Indianan class will sit around 60 for each class, so there will be another wave of commitments to come. Additionally, there are a couple of non-Division I commitments that happen during this 5 month window, seen in each of the past three classes within this dive, but excluded from this dive. In total, the number of college commitments will reach around 350 by the conclusion of their senior year, all happening within a ~20 month window. The 'new-age' recruiting process, while not an absolute, is loosely as followed:

Window 1: 5 months to follow August 1st, the 'new-age early commit'

Window 2: A small number of commitments have happened during the preseason/spring of the junior year, generally a player who has held offers since the fall, or showed a specific recruiting coordinator that saw him the previous fall a jump in ability, tool, etc. 

Window 3: Beginning at the conclusion of the college season, recruiters jump back out to the circuit for more looks. From June to signing day, which is in early November, we see the biggest wave of commitments from schools of all levels, along with the data trends indicating another ~ 20-30 Division I commitments happen at this time.

Window 4: Post-signing day, stretching to graduation, our data indicates that another ~ 50-80 overall college commitments will happen. Mostly non-Division I, but we did have a small number of Division I commitments happen at this time with the 2025-2026 classes. 

Below, I've dug into the data on 'early commitments' (Window 1) in the 2025, 2026, and 2027 classes. Important to note, the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and Big 12 are categorized below as Power Four conferences. In 2025, these were the four highest rated conferences in Division I baseball according to Conference RPI. All other conferences that compete at the Division I level are categorized as Mid-Major. Another small point for data validation, players were categorized as either A) committed or B) uncommitted as of the August 1st date. There were a couple instances of players who committed as underclassmen prior to the rule change, entered Aug 1 committed, and decommitted shortly thereafter. Those couple of players were not included in the data dive to follow. 

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Data Dive

Quick Demographics

• Overall 'Early' Recruits: 67
  • Power Four: 39
  • Mid-Major: 28
• By Class
  • 2025: 12 --- *(31 total D1 commits for the class at that time, 19 players committed before the rule change)
  • 2026: 20 --- *(31 total D1 commits for the class at that time, 11 players committed before the rule change)
  • 2027: 35
• By Position (By Primary Position)
  • Pitchers: 31
    • RHP: 22
      • RHP to Power Four: 12
    • LHP: 9
      • LHP to Power Four: 5
  • Catchers: 7
    • Power Four: 4
  • Corner Infielders: 7
    • Power Four: 5
  • Shortstops: 10
    • Power Four: 5
  • Outfielders: 12
    • Power Four: 8

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Tale of the Tape

*Listed below are the averages of all players that fit each specific category amongst the early commits. This data only contains the players metrics at our event from their sophomore season - which for this purpose is considered any time within the calendar year, whether spring/summer/ or fall.

• Pitcher Height/Weight
  • Power Four: 6-foot-3, 191-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 6-foot-1, 185-pounds
• Pitcher Average Max Fastball
  • Power Four: 89.6 mph
  • Mid-Major: 88.2 mph
• Pitcher Breaking Ball Spin Rate Avg
  • Power Four: 2332 rpm
  • Mid-Major: 2253 rpm
• Hitter Height/Weight
  • Power Four: 6-foot-1, 188-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 6-foot, 182-pounds
• Hitting Metrics (60, Position Velocity, Peak Exit Velocity, and Bat Speed avg.)
  • Power Four: 6.84 60, 88 mph positional velocity, 98.6 mph exit velocity, 71.5 mph bat speed
  • Mid-Major: 7.01 60, 85 mph positional velocity, 97 mph exit velocity, 70.3 mph bat speed

On the pitching side of things, it is clear that P4's are recruiting longer-framed pitchers with their average arm two inches taller than Mid-Major recruits at the same position. From a stuff perspective, we see a tick-or-two better heater from P4 recruits and the average breaking balls in the 2330 range compared to Mid-Major recruits who average in the mid 2200s. On the offensive side of the ball, the athleticism difference / run time is where I find the most glaring difference. P4 recruiters clearly show a favor towards high-end athletes, especially in the middle of the field, where the average P4 SS/OF recruit in this time frame runs a 6.71. On the Mid-Major side, that metric averages out to a 6.92. This is another theme throughout, especially at the shortstop position. The rest of the tools, like on the pitching side, feature a 'tick-or-two' higher amongst Power Four recruits compared to Mid-Major. Another nugget for the positional side of things, almost half (18-of-37) of the Division I early commits hit left-handed. 

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By Position

Pitchers

• RHP Height/Weight
  • Power Four: 6-foot-3, 190-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 6-foot-1, 190-pounds
• RHP peak Fastball Velocity
  • Power Four: 90.5 mph
  • Mid-Major: 88.6 mph
• RHP Breaking Ball Spin Rate avg
  • Power Four: 2352 rpm
  • Mid-Major: 2275 rpm
• LHP Height/Weight
  • Power Four: 6-foot-2, 183-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 6-foot- 1/2, 175-pounds
• LHP peak Fastball Velocity
  • Power Four: 88.6 mph
  • Mid-Major: 87.2 mph
• LHP Breaking Ball Spin Rate avg
  • Power Four: 2282 rpm
  • Mid Major: 2289 rpm

The takeaways here feel similiar to before in terms of height, from both LHP and RHP, with the P4 recruits on average two inches taller at the same position, along with their overall stuff a couple ticks higher. In diving into the numbers I found that 79% of the pitchers that committed in this data set stood 6-foot-1 or taller, and 88% stood 6-foot-1 or taller, or were left-handed. All nine LHP'ers in this data set stood at 6-foot, or taller. 

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Position Players

• Shortstops Height/Weight:
  • Power Four: 6-foot-2, 180-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 5-foot-11 1/2, 176-pounds
• Metrics:
  • Power Four: 6.77 60-yard dash, 90 mph infield velocity, 98.4 mph peak exit velocity, 70.4 mph avg bat speed
  • Mid-Major: 7.06 60-yard dash, 85 mph infield velocity, 95.8 mph peak exit velocity, 70.2 mph avg bat speed
• Left-Handed Hitter?
  • Power Four: 2-of-5 (40%)
  • Mid-Major: 4-of-5 (80%)

While the offensive metrics are somewhat-similiar, this is the position where I see athleticism and arm strength magnified. Power Four programs are not only looking for the best athletes of the crop at the shortstop position, but they must come with the prerequisite arm strength to project them out on the left-side long term. Additionally, the two inch difference we saw between pitchers heading to P4's vs Mid-Majors shows up again here with the shortstops. 

• Outfielders Height/Weight:
  • Power Four: 6-foot, 175-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 6-foot, 180-pounds
• Metrics:
  • Power Four: 6.72 60-yard dash, 88 mph outfield velocity, 99.5 mph peak exit velocity, 71.1 mph avg bat speed
  • Mid-Major: 6.75 60-yard dash, 88 mph outfield velocity, 98.3 mph peak exit velocity, 70.3 mph avg bat speed
• Left-Handed Hitter?
  • Power Four: 5-of-8 (62.5%)
  • Mid-Major: 4-of-4 (100%)

There is a slight difference in some tools here, but the numbers are eerily similiar across the board. The only noticeable trend here builds upon what we saw with shortstops, there is a bit more of a trend of Mid-Majors favoring left-handed hitters as SS/OF recruits. All-but-one of the 'early commits' as Mid-Major outfielders or shortstops hit left-handed.

• Catchers Height/Weight:
  • Power Four: 6-foot-2, 195-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 5-foot-11, 185-pounds
• Metrics:
  • Power Four: 7.00 60-yard, 83 mph arm from the crouch, 100.3 mph peak exit velocity, 71.9 mph avg bat speed
  • Mid-Major: 7.20 60-yard dash, 79 mph arm from the crouch, 95.8 mph peak exit velocity, 68.4 mph avg bat speed
• Left-Handed Hitter?
  • Power Four: 1-of-4 (25%)
  • Mid-Major: 0-of-3 

Amongst catchers, P4's clearly favor the pro-style body. This is where we see the largest gap in height of any position, and it is also where we see a large difference in overall physicality (height & weight), as the P4 recruit has 10-pounds on the Mid-Major on top of three inches of height. This is also where we see the largest gap in exit velocity and bat speed, along with the difference in run/athleticism and arm strength that we saw amongst shortstops. In other words, the P4-bound catchers in this data set clearly outperform their Mid-Major counterparts in every tool. 

• Corner Infielders Height/Weight:
  • Power Four: 6-foot-3 1/2, 205-pounds
  • Mid-Major: 6-foot-2, 195-pounds
• Metrics:
  • Power Four: 7.08 60-yard dash, 87 mph infield velocity, 97.8 mph peak exit velocity, 72.3 mph avg bat speed
  • Mid-Major: 7.13 60-yard dash, 85 mph infield velocity, 98.7 mph peak exit velocity, 73.7 mph avg bat speed
• Left-Handed Hitter?
  • Power Four: 3-of-5 (60%)
  • Mid-Major: 0-for-2

Analyzing this, the corner infielders seem to have the most even set of metrics amongst any position group. The P4 recruit, on average, is more physical - and there seems to be a premium on left-handed bats at this position if the first three years of this landscape is indicative of what is to come. The biggest takeaway of this group is 1) they are all taller than 6-foot, and 2) Division I programs are looking for physicality and bat speed at this position. The corner infield group, as a whole, boasts nearly a 2 mph higher average bat speed than any other position, while the average size of this prospect is 6-foot-3 and 202-pounds. 

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Where are they heading?

Schools recruiting Indiana natives early on in the recruiting window. Following that, a conference breakdown, including the average measurables if 3-or-more players that fit that criteria are found. 

• Most Recruits in this Time Period (schools with 3 or more listed below)
  • Indiana (13)
  • Wright State (5)
  • Ball State (4)
  • Evansville (4)
  • Dayton (4)
  • Notre Dame (3)
• Conferences 
  • SEC (10)
    • SEC Pitcher: 6-foot-3, 183-pounds. 91.6 mph FB, 2455 rpm avg breaking ball spin
    • SEC Hitter: 6-foot-2, 202-pounds. 6.79 60-yard dash, 87 mph position velocity, 101.8 mph exit, 73.9 mph avg bat speed
  • ACC (4)
    • ACC Hitter: 6-foot-2, 182-pounds. 6.65 60-yard dash, 91 mph position velocity, 99.3 mph exit, 74 mph avg bat speed
  • Big 12 (7)
    • Big 12 Pitcher: 6-foot-1, 190-pounds, 90.3 mph FB, 2308 rpm avg breaking ball spin
    • Big 12 Hitter: 6-foot, 184-pounds. 6.85 60-yard dash, 88 mph position velocity, 99 mph exit, 68.8 mph avg bat speed
  • Big 10 (18)
    • Big 10 Pitcher: 6-foot-3 1/2, 187-pounds. 88.9 mph FB, 2223 rpm avg breaking ball spin
    • Big 10 Hitter: 6-foot-1, 181-pounds. 6.92 60-yard dash, 87 mph positonal velocity, 97.1 mph exit, 70 mph avg bat speed
  • Missouri Valley (7)
    • Missouri Valley Pitcher: 6-foot 1/2, 180 pounds. 88.9 mph FB, 2351 rpm avg breaking ball spin
  • MAC (7)
    • MAC Pitcher: 6-foot-2 1/2, 195-pounds. 89.2 mph FB, 2126 rpm avg breaking ball spin
    • MAC Hitter: 6-foot-2 1/2, 185-pounds. 6.98 60-yard dash, 86 mph positional velocity, 97.2 mph exit, 72.5 mph avg bat speed
  • Horizon (5)
    • Horizon Pitcher: 6-foot, 173-pounds. 87.8 mph FB. 2201 rpm avg breaking ball spin
  • Atlantic 10 (5)
    • A10 Hitter: 5-foot-11, 182-pounds. 7.22 60-yard dash, 83 mph positional velocity, 95.4 mph exit, 68.8 mph avg bat speed
  • Big East (2)
  • Atlantic Sun (1)
  • AAC (1)

The difference in metrics we saw in the overall totals is validated here with P4 conferences showing a clear edge in metrics, especially SEC/ACC recruits. The average SEC recruit, on the mound, throws nearly 2 mph harder than any other conference, averaging a rounded peak fastball velocity of 92 mph during their sophomore season. I thought it was interesting to note that the Big 10 conference recruited the tallest pitcher, on average, with a slight tick down on average FB velocity compared to other P4 conferences. The real world application here, in my opinion, is that these schools are more apt to take the 'projection' type arm in the hopes of developing stuff further once they hit campus. 

Another important nugget, and the ugly side of the 'early commitment' by today's standards. Amongst the 32 players from the 2025-2026 classes who have now made it past signing day, 12.5% (1 in every 8) have decommitted from the school they originally committed to if they committed during the early window. Amongst that group, one ended up committing to a higher-level program than they previously committed to, three went down a level (lower-level D1 or non-D1), and one remains uncommitted.