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Data Dive: Valued Metrics in Evaluating Underclass Arms

January 20, 2026
Cooper Trinkle
Scouting Director

In previous data dives, I've focused more on the positional side of things from a metric standpoint, but today I venture into the pitching space in order to paint a clearer picture of what all that data means. When a pitcher comes to throw a bullpen at a Prep Baseball showcase, Trackman is always used to provide all of the underlying properties to each pitch as it auto populates into each individual players Prep Baseball profile. But what does all this data mean? How is it used?

My personal agenda for this is simple - I am looking for what metrics, or combination of, should be valued most. For players (and parents / coaches looking to help impact a player's career), I hope to educate and present information to apply to training and beyond.

Data Dive - Rule Revision Trends

Data Dive - Position Profile

Data Dive - Metrics that Correlate

For this dive, I first discussed with trusted evaluators with one question posed, "What do you value from a metric perspective when evaluating a prospect?" I got several different answers back to that, which is the first point to note when evaluating young arms - every coach/scout does not value the same thing, especially when recruiting pitchers. While I don't think there is a Pitching Coach in America who would turn down a 6'2" lefty who throws 95 with a clean arm action, repeatable delivery, and command for a three-pitch mix - those don't just grow on trees. Everyone wants to recruit that guy. With that being said, there are several roles in which a pitcher can impact the game at the upper levels of baseball. And there are also several traits that can be developed in order for an arm to blossom later. 

I unpacked all of the Trackman data on pitchers headed to Division I programs within the state of Indiana in the classes of 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027. In these four classes to date, 118 pitchers within the state of Indiana signed (committed for 2027 grads) to a DI program out of high school.

 Of these, 117/118 (all but 1) attended a Prep Baseball showcase at some point in their career. 

Having over 99% of the DI signees Trackman data gave me the ability to find some common points, averages, and marry some combinations of metrics that correlate. In order to create application to assist college recruiters, and in the hopes to make our rankings as accurate as possible, I focused solely on the data from a players' sophomore year of high school. This is when the recruiting process becomes real, RC's begin to build out their boards, plan trips for spring/summer, and get priority camp invites out, especially for the top of the top of college baseball who will hit the ground running on August 1st. Of the 118 Division I-bound pitchers in the 2024-2027 classes, 95 (over 80%) attended showcase during their sophomore season. Additionally, our staff got looks on 91.5% (108/118) of eventual Division I signees in the 2024-2027 classes while they were sophomores, either in showcase or in a varsity/travel circuit game. All of the data seen below is indicative of where the eventual DI-bound pitcher was as a sophomore in high school when our staff got eyes on them. 

What should we value?

As I dug into the data and talked to pitching coaches who've had success in the space, I ended up finding 5 different metric-based categories that are valued within the industry. These are things that coaches are looking for, on top of in-game success and reliable makeup, when recruiting a high school pitchers. They are...

1) Fastball Velocity

2) The ability to spin the baseball

3) Projection

4) Fastball Shape

5) Release Traits

All of these can be measured and identified at a Prep Baseball showcase and are valued for different reasons. There is big merit to "traditional" scouting ideologies that go beyond what we can measure. For instance, there is not a quantifiable number to measure arm action, but it is highly valued. The clean, free-flowing arm has less injury risk, along with a strong chance to make jumps as mass/rotational power is added to the frame. The same can be said for the ability to repeat the delivery, which often leads to better command, and a stronger chance to hold velocity/stuff deeper into outings - prerequisites to projecting a young arm out to be a next-level starter. While command/control can be partially quantified in the showcase setting, it is also a box that needs to be checked over a history of watching the pitcher compete in a game setting, and following in-game statistics and how they trend. These are things that need to be evaluated in the in-person look - but the five quantifiable traits above are often what leads (or partially leads) a recruiter to the in-person look. 

I have broken down each category by the average, and I also present the data to show what quantifiable metrics (or combination of) correlate closest to an eventual Division I or Power Four opportunity. 

Fastball Velocity

  • Average Peak FB of eventual DI signees during their sophomore season : 87.7 mph 
    • LHP : 86.6 mph
    • RHP : 88.1 mph
  • Average Peak FB of eventual Power Four signees during their sophomore season : 89.1 mph
    • LHP : 87.7 mph
    • RHP : 89.8 mph 
  • Peak FB Velocity Variance of eventual Division I signees
    • 98th percentile or higher : 95 mph or higher
    • 84th to 98th percentile : 90.6 mph to 94.9 mph
    • 50th to 84th percentile : 87.7 mph to 90.5 mph
    • 16th to 50th percentile : 84.9 mph to 87.6 mph
    • Below the 16th percentile : 84.8 mph or less

+ Of the 17 players who scored 1 standard deviation or higher (84th percentile or above) in this data set, all 17 signed (committed for 2027 grads*) to Power Four programs, making this the metric that correlates closest to a Power Four commitment of any metric that we have. Of the two that scored 2 standard deviations or higher (98th percentile or above), one signed to an SEC program while the other is currently verbally committed to a Big 12 program. Point blank, college recruiters, and Power Four in specific, are comfortable in extending an opportunity to a sophomore who throws 91-plus because they already have a fastball that can challenge hitters at the DI level. Of course, pure velocity is not the end all be all, but this data does show a clear trend there. On the flip, of the 18 pitchers who threw slower than 85 mph on their best bullet as a sophomore and ended up signing to the DI level, 4/18 were eventual Power Four signees, and three of the four were left-handed pitchers. Of the same group of four, two graduated high school at 17 years old, which helps to explain their late-blooming path, and none of these four were 19 years old at graduation. This shows the importance of the age of prospect in projecting out these players, with the four eventual Power Four signees who peaked at less than 85 mph as a sophomore averaging an increase of 6.75 mph on their fastball by the time they graduated high school. Additionally, we can conclude that peak fastball velocity is more important for a prospective right-handed pitcher than it is for their left-handed counterparts. 

Additionally, and very important to note, of the 17 pitchers who scored in the 84th percentile or above in peak fastball velocity, all of them scored above average in at least 3 of the 6 quantifiable categories. This hints at the notion that just because a player throws with exceptional velocity, it does not mean that velocity alone will lead them to a Division I opportunity. 

#SpinWins

  • Average Fastball spin rate of eventual DI signees during their sophomore season : 2161 RPM
    • LHP : 2147 RPM
    • RHP : 2166 RPM
  • Average Fastball spin rate of eventual Power Four signees during their sophomore season : 2235 RPM
    • LHP : 2195 RPM
    • RHP : 2270 RPM
  • Fastball Spin Rate Variance of eventual Division I signees
    • 98th percentile or higher : 2545 RPM or better
    • 84th to 98th percentile : 2353 RPM to 2544 RPM
    • 50th to 84th percentile : 2161 RPM to 2352 RPM
    • 16th to 50th percentile : 1950 RPM to 2160 RPM
    • Below the 16th percentile : 1949 RPM or less
  • Average breaking ball spin rate of eventual DI signees during their sophomore season : 2224 RPM
    • LHP : 2258 RPM
    • RHP : 2213 RPM
  • Average breaking ball spin rate of eventual Power Four signees during their sophomore season :
    • LHP : 2321 RPM
    • RHP : 2305 RPM
  • Breaking Ball Spin Rate Variance of eventual Division I signees
    • 98th percentile or higher : 2724 RPM
    • 84th to 98th percentile : 2474 RPM to 2723 RPM
    • 50th to 84th percentile : 2224 RPM to 2473 RPM
    • 16th to 50th percentile : 1974 RPM to 2223 RPM
    • Below the 16th percentile : 1973 RPM or less

+ The second-closest correlating data point can be summed up in the overall ability to spin the baseball. 13/15 of those that scored in the 84th percentile or better in average fastball spin rate signed to Power Four programs, with Ryan Murphy (Creighton) and Max Winders (Western Kentucky) as the two non-Power Four signees. These two were regarded within our state rankings higher than several Power Four recruits in their grade, and both Creighton and Western Kentucky can be considered "Power Majors" after each program finished inside the Top 50 RPI in 2025 (WKU = 46-14; 44 RPI, Creighton 43-16; 38 RPI) - so the data checks out. Additionally, 13/17 that scored in the 84th percentile or better in average breaking ball spin rate signed to Power Four programs, and both pitchers who scored in the 98th percentile or better ended up signing to ACC/SEC programs. In contrast to peak fastball velocity, we can see that the ability to spin a tighter breaking ball is valued more when evaluating left-handed pitchers than it is with right-handed pitchers. 

*60% of pitchers in this data set with above average (2261 RPM) fastball spin committed to a Power Four, while only 30% of those who scored below the average ended up signing to a Power Four. 

*64% of pitchers in this data set with above average (2224 RPM) breaking ball spin committed to a Power Four, while only 27% of those who scored below the average ended up signing to a Power Four. 

*5-of-7 pitchers who scored in the 84th percentile or better on both spin metrics signed to Power Four programs, with Winders and Murphy standing as the two non P4 signees again here. Matthew Fisher, who signed for 7-figures in the 2025 MLB Draft, is among the five Power Four signees in this group along with : Gannon Grant (Tennessee signee), Will Jaisle (Notre Dame), AJ Baggett (Indiana), and Collin Marcum (Indiana).

*71% (27/38) of pitchers in this data set who scored above the average in both fastball and breaking ball spin rate ended up committing to a Power Four program. 

Projection

  • Average Height/Weight of eventual Division I signees during their sophomore year : 6-foot-2, 184-pounds
    • LHP : 6-foot-1 1/2, 185-pounds
    • RHP : 6-foot-2 1/4, 184-pounds
  • Average Height/Weight of eventual Power Four signees during their sophomore year : 6-foot-2, 188-pounds
    • LHP : 6-foot-2, 188-pounds
    • RHP : 6-foot-2 1/2, 187-pounds
  • Variance in Height of eventual Division I signees
    • 98th percentile or higher : 6-foot-6 or taller
    • 84th to 98th percentile : 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-6
    • 50th to 84th percentile : 6-foot-2 to 6-foot-4
    • 16th to 50th percentile : 6-foot to 6-foot-2
    • Below the 16th percentile : Shorter than 6-foot tall 
  • Height - By the Numbers
    • Taller than 6-foot-6 : 1
    • 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-6 : 20
    • 6-foot-1 to 6-foot-3 : 59
    • 6-foot : 21
    • Sub 6-foot : 7

+ 57.4% of the pitchers who were 6-foot-2 or taller in this set ended up signing to Power Four programs while just 34% of pitchers shorter than 6-foot-2 ended up signing to the Power Four level. While not as strong of a correlation than velocity or the ability to spin the ball, there is some basis behind valuing longer-levered pitchers. The longer the lever, the more the ball can speed up while it is in the hand, and as strength/rotational power is added later more jumps can be made. 

Fastball Shape

Fastball shape is something that came up continously in talks with evaluators, and we can measure this using the movements plots captured by Trackman. Using the average Induced Vertical Break (IVB) and Horizontal Break (HB) measured in each bullpen, we can begin to make conclusions about how the fastball will play versus hitters. This data explains what the eyes see, and goes beyond pure fastball velocity. Maybe a pitcher is throwing 86 mph as a sophomore, but good hitters continously swing underneath his fastball and perceive it to be faster... this is likely due to the fastball playing with significant carry. A similiar thought process can be applied for a RHP who continously gets weak, jammed contact versus RHH's... why is that happening? Digging into the metrics, it is likely that his fastball is playing with significant horizontal movement to the armside. I broke down each pitcher's fastball shape using the following guidelines :

  • Sinker - less than 10 inches of IVB with 14 to 15 (or better) inches of HB
  • Arm Side Run - between 10 and 14 inches of IVB with 15 inches of HB or better
  • Ride/Run - 15-plus inches of IVB with 15 inches of HB or better
  • Straight FB - less than 14 inches of IVB and between 5 and 12 inches of HB
  • Cut - less than 12 inches of IVB with less than 3 inches of HB
  • Cut/Ride - 14 to 15 (or better) inches of IVB with less than 3 to 5 inches of HB
  • Carry - 15-plus inches of IVB with HB between 6 and 14 inches

While there is some deviation to this, especially when combined with the fastball release height, each fastball can be lumped into one of the above categories to better understand how it will play in game. Here is the breakdown of the # of pitchers that fell under each category, with the # of Power Four recruits in each category listed in parenthesis next to the total :

  • Sinker - 10 (2)
  • Run - 7 (6)
  • Ride/Run - 7 (3) 
  • Straight - 20 (7)
  • Cut - 4 (1)
  • Cut/Ride - 6 (3)
  • Carry - 31 (16)
  • Showed More than 1 Fastball Shape - 10 (6)

The first thing that jumps out to me from the data was reaffirmed in conversation with pitching coaches, there is a clear value placed on the ability to get a fastball above a hitter's barrel. If we eliminate the 20 pitchers with straight (aka Dead Zone) properties, we are left with 75 pitchers from this sample that showed at least one clear fastball shape. Of the 75, 51 (68%) of pitchers had the ability, as sophomores, the get their fastball to play with some sort of carry (ride/run, cut/ride, carry, 7/10 with multiple had at least one shape featuring high IVB). Additionally, 61% of Power Four signees featured at least one fastball shape that played with some variation of carry. 

A group that interested me greatly was the group of 7 with true ASR-type fastballs. 6/7 of these pitchers were Power Four recruits, with Evansville recruit Owen Lukac as the only non-Power Four recruit. While Evansville is not in a Power Four conference, they are only a few years removed from a Super Regional appearance and can be considered a "Power Major" considering the team that won the Missouri Valley finished in Omaha last year (Murray State). Jack Brown (Louisville), Beckett Doane (Mississippi State), Davis Moore (Vanderbilt), Riley Ackerman (Northwestern), Ivan Mastalski (Indiana), and Joe Trenerry (Purdue) are the other six, all some of the top pitching prospects in their individual graduating classes. The interesting part with this crew can be found when this pitch shape is combined with release height. These seven arms combined to average a release height of just over 5-foot, which is 7 inches below the average release height of the entire data set. The real world application is that the low release height, paired with the flatter, east-to-west nature of the fastball shape, creates a low VAA (vertical approach angle) making the pitch seem to "stay up" longer and appear deceptive to the hitter. While the metrics say a "running" fastball is more of a east-to-west profile, when it is combined with a low release height, there is still an ability for the pitcher to get above a hitter's barrel with it - pointing to the same conclusion we drew from the "carry" crowd. 

Aside from a clear trend of the ability to go north with a fastball being valued, I was intrigued with the group of 10 arms who showed 2-or more legitamite fastball shapes. Of this group, 60% went on to Power Four opportunities with some big-named prospects featured amongst that crop. Aiden Smith (Kentucky), Hudson Devaughan (Alabama), Parker Rhodes (Mississippi State), and Adam Buczkowski (Cincinnati) are amongst this group - four arms who have proven the ability to get fastball swings-and-misses versus good hitters. The interesting point with this crew is that at times, all four showed a "3-plane fastball". They could carry the fastball up, they could (either purposely or on accident) cut the fastball glove-side, and they all had a sinker-style fastball that intentionally went to. This is a trait becoming more-and-more valued within the industry because of the difficulties that come with game planning against it. 

Release Traits

Fastball shape is dependent upon the release traits to some extent, but this is also the final category here we can quantify in a showcase setting. Using average release height & average extension for fastballs, we can start to understand why some pitchers without big velocity, stuff, or a clear fastball shape are valuable. In simple terms, release height and extension helps us to quantify "deception". In other words, these metrics help to explain how "unique" of a look that the fastball provides. The extension measures how far away from the rubber that the pitch is released, while the release height is a little more obvious in how far off the ground the pitch is released. 

  • Extension Variance
    • 98th percentile or higher : 7.6 extension or better
    • 84th to 98th percentile : 6.8 feet to 7.5 feet
    • 50th to 84th percentile : 6 feet to 6.7 feet
    • 16th to 50th percentile : 5.2 feet to 5.9 feet
    • Below the 16th percentile : Sub-5.2 extension
  • Release Height Variance
    • 2 Standard Deviations above (OR) below average : 6'8" or taller (OR) 4'5" or lower
    • 1 Standard Deviation above average : above 6'3" (OR) below 5'0"
    • 1/2 Standard Devation above average : above 6'0" to 6'3" (OR) 5'0" to 5'3"

Using this data, in conjuction with the data from the other four categories, I found some interesting correlations.

  • The average extension for pitchers with a straight (dead zone) fastball came out to be 6.38, well above the overall average of 5.98. Diving deeper, the seven Power Four signees with dead zone fastball properties combined for an average extension of 6.58, almost one standard deviation above the average. In real world application, prospects are able to mitigate dead zone properties with the ability to get down the mound and release the fastball closer to home plate. Additionally, the four prospects who showed 98th percentile extension or better averaged a peak fastball of 87.6 mph, which is below the overall average of this data set. This alludes to the same conclusion drawn from the dead zone crowd, and it is that below average velocity can be mitigated by releasing the baseball closer to home plate. 
  • The average peak fastball velocity of pitchers who scored one standard deviation above the average in release height was 86.9 mph, almost 1 mph below the average of the data set. This shows that below average velocity can also be mitigated by a unique release height. 
  • An interesting outlier to note is Gavin Kuzniewski, a 2024 grad from Fishers who led Ohio State in innings pitched as a freshman. From a traditional scouting sense, his 5-foot-10 frame turned some recruiters away. However, he was one of only three pitchers in this data set to score one standard deviation above average in BOTH extension and release height. Additionally, his peak fastball velocity of 90.7 mph was also a score that was one standard deviation above the average. His combination of velocity, mixed with outlier release traits, mitigated the undersized frame he was dealt with and allowed for immediate success at the next level. 

Interesting Combinations of Metrics

+ 89% (8/9) of arms that scored above the 84th percentile in three categories ended up signing to the Power Four level. Ethan Lund (Oklahoma State), Brayton Thomas (Indiana), Hudson Devaughan (Alabama), Gannon Grant (Tennessee), Parker Rhodes (Mississippi State), Collin Marcum (Indiana), Camden Moore (Notre Dame), and Kuzniewski make up this group of Power Four signees. Additionally, 70% of those who scored in the 84th percentile or above in two categories went on to sign to a Power Four program. 

+ 94% (15/16) of arms that scored above average in at least 5 of the 6 quantifiable categories went on the sign to the Power Four level. Of these 16, all-but-one had a clear fastball shape. 

+ Ethan Lund was the only pitcher who scored in the 84th percentile in both extension and breaking ball spin. Applying that to what my eyes saw, the breaking ball he showed was one of the best I've seen in-game amongst this crop of arms. His elite extension allowed his breaking ball to break later, causing it to give a fastball look for longer as it traveled to the plate. 

Of the 95 pitchers who threw on our Trackman as sophomores and went on to sign to the Division I level :

  • 11 showed an average fastball spin rate of less than 1900 (2 Power Four)
  • 11 showed an average breaking ball spin rate of less than 1900 (4 P4)
  • 11 showed a fastball that peaked at less than 84 mph (2 P4)

To conclude, there is not one metric that a pitcher MUST have to pitch at the next level, Division I level, Power Four level, etc...

To sum it up best, we are looking for the ability to compete with a fastball, first-and-foremost. That is step one, in my opinion. Whether it is by throwing it with exceptional velocity, having the ability to carry it above a barrel, or by using a unique release slot to "play it up" - the fastball has to be able to challenge a hitter. The secondary offering is undoubtedly the separator. Having the ability to get swing-and-miss with spin (or a changeup) is vital. Finally, while not as strong of a correlate as the previous two, there needs to be an ability to project further development in a prospective pitcher.

The metrics tell a story. They reaffirm what the eyes see. Obviously, the more above average or "plus" metrics a prospect has, the more likely they are to grab the attention of a college recruiter or professional scout. At the end of the day, outs are currency in this game and the ability to get them, and limit baserunners / runs, is at a premium. With that being said, my goal is to "predict the future" in some ways and determine which underclassmen have the prerequisite traits to continue to have success, which is the entire point of this data dive. For the player, the goal is to determine what you do well, then diagnose what weaknesses you have in your game, and relentlessly attack those weaknesses in your training. These metrics serve as a baseline so that you know you are moving in the right direction.